粤开证券指出,CPI同比5.4%,高于市场预期,春节错位和新冠肺炎疫情初期居民物品囤积是主要推升因素。关注疫情后续发展对CPI的影响。由于缺少口罩等医疗物资,交通运输部数据显示目前返程率不足20%,生产恢复缓慢。加之采取了严厉的隔离措施,交通运输受阻,增加了食品等的运输难度。参考非典时期经验,2003年3月—5月全国CPI环比平均比前三年对应月份均值高0.2%。因此受疫情冲击,CPI同比回落幅度将慢于此前预期。
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