中金固收指出，综合来看，我们预计CPI在2-3月环比跌幅加大，上半年CPI可能会跌破2%的关口。我们预计PPI同比在2月后加速下跌，进入负值通缩区间；PPI环比在2-4月跌幅由深到缓，此后环比跌幅修复，但同比持续下滑，在6月前后达到-4%以下。鉴于通胀仍将持续回落，我们认为即使在目前债券收益率已经走低的情况下，还是可以继续增持债券，预计10年国债收益率有望触及2.5%甚至更低。
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